My Data-Driven Blog

Exploring the Global Impact of Pandemics: A Data-Driven Analysis with a Focus on COVID-19

Introduction:

Welcome to my data-driven blog exploring the global impact of pandemics, with a specific focus on COVID-19. As the world continues to grapple with the far-reaching effects of infectious diseases, understanding the historical context and contemporary challenges posed by pandemics is paramount. Through comprehensive data analysis, we aim to shed light on the magnitude of past pandemics, the evolving landscape of COVID-19, and the socio-demographic factors influencing disease outcomes.

In the initial segment of this blog, we utilised data sourced from Wikipedia via Web-Scraping, which catalogs epidemics and pandemics alongside their respective dates and death tolls. While the quality of this data was commendable, it necessitated extensive manual cleaning to ensure numerical accuracy for analysis. Additionally, due to the dataset encompassing events dating back to 1350 BC, there were instances of missing data, denoted as NaN, as well as inaccuracies and broad ranges. To address these discrepancies, we opted to impute missing values with NaN and, where applicable, employed methods such as averaging to mitigate the impact of broad data ranges on our analysis.

First let's explore the pandemics with the largest impact by Death toll.

At a glance, we observe that the Black Death had the highest death toll, approximately 137.5 million people. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic ranks among the top 10, underscoring its historic significance in recent times with an approximate death toll of 7 million. Additionally, the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic has a profound impact, with an approximate death toll of 42 million, highlighting its enduring significance.

Next, let's examine the lowest impact per death toll.

The Lowest Death Toll by Event provides an overview of events with the least significant death tolls. For example, the Queensland 2009 dengue outbreak resulted in only 1 fatality, while the 2006 India malaria outbreak saw an estimated 17 deaths. These instances may indicate diseases that are less contagious, occurred in sparsely populated areas, or where effective preventive measures were implemented.

Next I wanted to look at the impact of Pandemics over time to the present day:

Examining significant events and their respective death tolls between 1350 and 1800 reveals distinctive spikes in mortality. The first major spike occurred during the Cocoliztli epidemic of 1545-1548, which ravaged Central Mexico and led to approximately 10 million deaths. Following this devastating event, another surge in fatalities was observed during the Cocoliztli epidemic of 1576, resulting in approximately 2.5 million deaths.

In 1616, the New England infections epidemic emerged, claiming the lives of an estimated 2 million individuals. The graph further depicts a notable increase in mortality during the 1772 North American measles epidemic, coinciding with the 1772-1773 Persian Plague, collectively resulting in just over 2 million deaths.

The second graph reveals a notable spike caused by the 1855 Norfolk yellow fever epidemic, which was a consequence of the Third Plague pandemic. This devastating event, occurring in 1855, resulted in the tragic loss of approximately 13.5 Million lives. The Third Plague pandemic, originating in China in the mid-19th century, spread globally, causing widespread mortality.

Additionally, throughout the 19th century, several cholera pandemics inflicted a significant death toll. The first notable surge occurred in 1846, claiming approximately 1 million lives worldwide. Following this, the Fourth cholera pandemic in 1863 led to the deaths of around 600,000 individuals. Towards the end of the century, in 1899, the 6th cholera pandemic caused an estimated 800,000 deaths, marking the end to the century's battle against infectious disease. These pandemics underscore the profound impact of infectious diseases on human populations during the 19th century, shaping public health policies and practices for generations to come.

Finally, examining events from the 19th century to the present day, three significant spikes emerge. The first, and most impactful, occurred in 1918 with the influenza pandemic, commonly known as the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu was caused by the H1N1 influenza virus and is considered one of the deadliest pandemics in history. It spread rapidly across the globe, affecting millions of people and resulting in a staggering death toll of approximately 67 million individuals worldwide. The Spanish flu disproportionately affected young, healthy adults, highlighting the unpredictability and severity of influenza viruses.

The next spike reflects the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) attacks the body's immune system, specifically targeting CD4 cells, which are crucial for fighting off infections. AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) is the most advanced stage of HIV infection when the immune system is severely damaged. While the spike is marked in 1981 with the recognition of the first cases, the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to claim lives daily. Since its emergence, HIV/AIDS has led to a devastating death toll of approximately 42 million individuals worldwide. Despite significant advancements in treatment and prevention, HIV/AIDS remains a significant global health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions heavily affected by the epidemic.

Most recently, we observe a spike caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread globally, leading the World Health Organisation to declare it a pandemic in March 2020. COVID-19 is primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets and close contact with infected individuals. The disease manifests with a wide range of symptoms, from mild respiratory illness to severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in just over 7 million deaths globally, making it one of the most significant public health crises in recent times. Its rapid spread, high transmission rate, and severe impact on healthcare systems underscore the urgent need for global cooperation and robust public health measures to control and mitigate its effects.

Investigating By Geographical Location:

The geographic plot showcasing pandemics and epidemics around the world provides us with invaluable insights into the spatial distribution and spread of infectious diseases. By taking advantage of the interactivity of this plot we can visually see the geographical spread of different pandemics and which regions are more prone to them.

Upon observation, we notice distinct clusters, particularly around Europe, indicating a concentration of outbreaks in this region. This clustering can be attributed to the close proximity of countries and dense populations, facilitating the rapid transmission of diseases. Urban centres and bustling transportation networks within Europe likely contribute to the heightened vulnerability to pandemics and epidemics.

Conversely, regions such as Antarctica and Greenland exhibit fewer instances of epidemics. These areas, characterised by their remoteness and sparse populations, present less favourable conditions for disease transmission. The limited human presence and isolation from major transportation routes likely contribute to the lower incidence of outbreaks in these rural locales.

This geographical analysis underscores the significant role of population density, connectivity, and environmental factors in shaping the distribution and spread of pandemics and epidemics worldwide.

Covid-19 Focused Data Driven Analysis:

Delving deeper into the repercussions of Covid-19, I obtained a dataset from The Sex, Gender and COVID-19 Project, last updated on September 15, 2022. This dataset meticulously delineates age and sex-disaggregated data, primarily focusing on mortality rates. It's important to note that certain countries exhibit missing values, denoted as NaN. This gap stems from inadequate data collection and underreporting in certain regions, underscoring the critical importance of precise data collection methodologies.

Exploring Gender disparity First:

Upon analysis of this plot, it becomes evident that overwhelmingly more men succumbed to COVID-19. This gender disparity underscores the profound impact of the virus, which, despite the pandemic having ended, continues to present challenges as society grapples with its lasting consequences.

Several factors contribute to men's heightened vulnerability to severe outcomes from COVID-19. Firstly, biological differences play a significant role, with men exhibiting varying immune responses to infections compared to women. Additionally, men are more likely to have pre-existing health conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes, which increase the risk of severe illness.

Moreover, behavioural and lifestyle factors, including smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, can weaken the immune system and exacerbate COVID-19 symptoms among men. Occupational exposure also poses a significant risk, with men overrepresented in frontline roles that entail a higher likelihood of virus exposure.

Compounding these factors is a tendency among some men to delay seeking medical care when experiencing COVID-19 symptoms, which can lead to delayed diagnosis and treatment, worsening outcomes.

In contrast, countries like Vietnam, Maldives, and Barbados deviated from this trend, with approximately 57%, 59%, and 56% of deaths being female, respectively. This divergence may be influenced by a combination of cultural, demographic, and public health factors.

Cultural norms and societal expectations regarding gender roles and behaviours can significantly impact health outcomes. In some societies, women may have greater access to healthcare or may be more proactive in seeking medical attention when experiencing symptoms of illness. Additionally, cultural practices such as dietary habits, physical activity levels, and healthcare-seeking behaviours may vary between countries and contribute to differences in COVID-19 mortality rates by gender.

Demographic factors, including age distribution and population structure, also play a role. For example, countries with a higher proportion of elderly females may experience higher female mortality rates due to the increased vulnerability of older adults to severe COVID-19 outcomes.

A rare occurrence was observed in Turks and Caicos, where an equal proportion of men and women lost their lives to the virus. This unique situation may be influenced by a combination of factors. For example, the population size of Turks and Caicos is relatively small, which may limit the statistical significance of gender disparities in COVID-19 mortality rates.

Lastly, in first-world nations like the USA and England, a similar proportion of male and female deaths was observed, with approximately 55% of deaths being male and 45% female. This parity in gender distribution of COVID-19 fatalities in these countries may reflect relatively equitable healthcare systems and widespread vaccination efforts, as well as similar beliefs and attitudes.

Now exploring the impact of Covid-19 by looking at Age:

For the age analysis, it is evident that the older the individual, the higher the likelihood of succumbing to COVID-19. The greatest number of deaths is observed in the age group of 80-89, with approximately 540,000 deaths, and this generally declines as the age decreases. This trend can be attributed to the physiological vulnerability of older individuals to severe illness and complications from COVID-19, as well as age-related weakening of the immune system.

However, there is a notable disparity observed wherein slightly fewer people died in the age group of 70-79 compared to the 60-69 age group. This discrepancy could be attributed to several factors, including potential inaccuracies in data collection and reporting. Additionally, variations in vaccination coverage and demographic characteristics may also influence this trend.

Overall, the age analysis underscores the importance of prioritising protective measures and healthcare interventions for older populations, while also addressing disparities and improving data quality to better understand and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 across age groups.

Finally Exploring the Demographic Breakdown of Covid-19 Deaths:

In addressing the lack of comprehensive data per country, it's crucial to acknowledge the challenges posed by varying reporting standards, data collection methodologies, and accessibility to accurate information. Visual representations, such as interactive maps and charts, can serve as effective tools to illustrate these data discrepancies and highlight areas where data gaps exist. While the dataset used in this analysis may not capture real-time figures, it provides a foundational understanding of the pandemic's impact up to 2021, with subsequent efforts aimed at enhancing data collection and accessibility for more robust analyses in the future.

Turning to specific regions, the United States stands out prominently with over 850,000 recorded deaths. This staggering figure can be attributed to various factors, including the country's large population size, decentralised healthcare system, socio-economic disparities, and initial challenges in implementing cohesive public health measures. Despite advancements in medical treatments and vaccination campaigns, the U.S. has faced ongoing challenges in containing the virus due to factors such as vaccine hesitancy, political polarisation, and misinformation.

Moving to Mexico and Brazil, both countries have experienced significant death tolls, with approximately 350,000 and 165,000 deaths, respectively. These figures underscore the impact of COVID-19 on densely populated regions and highlight systemic issues such as healthcare infrastructure strain, socioeconomic inequalities, and delayed or inadequate government responses. Factors such as population density, urbanisation, and cultural practices may have contributed to the rapid spread and severity of the virus in these countries.

In Italy, which observed around 165,000 deaths, early outbreaks overwhelmed the healthcare system, leading to high mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations and the elderly. Challenges in implementing timely containment measures, insufficient healthcare resources, and initial uncertainty surrounding effective treatments compounded the severity of the crisis. Italy's experience serves as a stark reminder of the importance of swift and coordinated responses in mitigating the impact of infectious diseases.

Performing Predictive Analysis with Covid-19 Data:

To conduct predictive analysis on COVID-19 mortality susceptibility, we utilised a dataset from the Office for National Statistics UK, focusing on COVID-19 deaths across various demographic factors such as ethnicity, sex, and age band. After preprocessing the data and converting categorical variables into numerical representations, I split the dataset into features (X) and the target variable (y), which represents the ratio of COVID-19-related deaths to non-COVID-19-related deaths. Then employing the Random Forest Regressor model to predict the target variable based on the features.

Exploring Feature Importance:

Additionally seen via the plot below, I examined feature importance to understand the relative contribution of each feature to the model's predictive power. This analysis allows us to discern which demographic factors have the most significant impact on COVID-19 mortality susceptibility.

Firstly, Ethnicity emerges as the most influential factor in predicting COVID-19 outcomes, with a substantial importance score of approximately 0.73. This underscores the significant impact of ethnic background on susceptibility, severity, and mortality rates associated with COVID-19. Various socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors linked to ethnicity, such as access to healthcare, living conditions, genetic predispositions, and prevalence of underlying health conditions, can contribute to disparities in COVID-19 outcomes across different ethnic groups. Understanding these disparities is crucial for developing targeted public health interventions, healthcare policies, and outreach efforts to address the specific needs and vulnerabilities of diverse ethnic communities.

While not as dominant as ethnicity, gender also plays a noteworthy role in predicting COVID-19 outcomes, as indicated by its importance score of approximately 0.20. Biological differences between sexes, along with socio-cultural factors, may influence susceptibility to infection, severity of symptoms, and response to treatment. For instance, research suggests that males may experience higher mortality rates from COVID-19 compared to females, possibly due to differences in immune responses, hormonal factors, or behavioural patterns. Recognising the gender disparities in COVID-19 outcomes can inform targeted interventions tailored to the specific needs of men and women, ensuring equitable access to healthcare and resources.

Despite age being a well-established risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes, the feature importance score for 'Ageband' is comparatively lower, at approximately 0.06. This does not diminish the importance of age but rather reflects the context of the analysed dataset. It's possible that within the scope of this particular dataset, other factors such as ethnicity and gender exert a stronger influence on COVID-19 outcomes, overshadowing the contribution of age alone. However, it's essential to note that advancing age remains a critical risk factor for severe illness and mortality from COVID-19, and age-specific strategies for prevention, vaccination, and care should continue to be prioritised.

Exploring Ethnic groups most at risk:

To complement our findings, I've created a visual representation of the predicted ratios of COVID-19 deaths across different ethnic groups. Below is a bar plot showcasing the ethnicities with the highest predicted ratios of COVID-19-related deaths:

From the plot we see, there was a significantly high predicted ratio of COVID-19 deaths among individuals of Indian ethnicity (0.8885) which may be attributed to various factors. Indian communities often exhibit close-knit family structures and multi-generational households, which can facilitate the rapid spread of the virus within households. Additionally, socio-economic factors such as crowded living conditions and frontline work in essential industries such as healthcare workers, contribute to higher vulnerability among individuals of Indian descent.

Next, individuals of Bangladeshi/Pakistani ethnicity also face elevated risks of COVID-19 mortality (predicted ratio: 0.5288). Cultural practices, language barriers, and lower socio-economic status may hinder access to accurate information about the virus and preventive measures. Moreover, higher prevalence of co-morbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases within these communities can exacerbate the severity of COVID-19 outcomes.

Also, the predicted ratio of COVID-19 deaths among individuals of Black ethnicity (0.5173) underscores persistent health inequities and structural racism within healthcare systems. Black communities often experience disproportionate rates of poverty, inadequate access to healthcare, and higher rates of underlying health conditions, all of which contribute to increased susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes.

An Interesting personal prediction:

Lastly, I found it intriguing to predict the ratio of COVID-19-related deaths for a group of individuals sharing my demographic features: female, mixed ethnic group, and aged between 0 and 64. The analysis revealed that individuals with these characteristics, akin to mine, have a Predicted Ratio of Coronavirus-related deaths to non-Coronavirus-related deaths of 0.23. This outcome resonates with my expectations; given the younger age bracket and female gender, as observed in earlier analyses, the likelihood of mortality decreases significantly. It underscores the importance of demographic factors in understanding COVID-19 susceptibility and reinforces the trends observed in broader epidemiological studies.

Conclusion:

In this data-driven exploration of the global impact of pandemics, I delved into historical outbreaks and contemporary challenges posed by COVID-19. By examining pandemics' historical tolls, from the devastating Black Death to the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic, I have gained insights into the varied trajectories and societal impacts of infectious diseases over centuries.

The chronological analysis from the 14th century to the present day highlights key events and their corresponding death tolls, illustrating the cyclical nature of pandemics and the lessons learned from past crises. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic stands out as one of the most significant public health challenges of our time, with far-reaching consequences for global health, economies, and societal norms.

I also explored demographic trends in COVID-19 mortality, uncovering disparities based on gender, age, and ethnicity. These findings underscore the complex interplay of biological, socio-economic, and cultural factors in shaping individuals' susceptibility to infectious diseases and the unequal burdens borne by marginalised communities.

Through predictive analysis, I've identified key demographic factors influencing COVID-19 outcomes and highlighted ethnic groups at higher risk. These insights can inform targeted interventions and policy measures to address disparities and mitigate the impact of future pandemics.

In a personal prediction, I've observed how demographic characteristics influence COVID-19 susceptibility, reaffirming the importance of understanding individual risk factors in combating infectious diseases.

As we navigate the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 and prepare for future pandemics, this data-driven analysis serves as a reminder of the resilience of human societies and the importance of evidence-based approaches in safeguarding public health.